WORLD ECONOMY
Highest growth for Japan up to 2005 / Prognos: Worldwide economic perspectives
Among the industrialised countries in the "triade" – North America / Europe / Asia – Japan will see the most substantial economic growth in the period 1999-2005, while growth perspectives for North America (USA and Canada) appear "especially favourable" in the period up to 1999, the latest world report by Swiss research institute Prognos AG (Missionsstr. 62, CH-4012 Basel) predicts. The study analyses perspectives for economic development in 22 industrialised countries and regions, whereby the latest developments on international currency markets are not considered.
Prognos predicts average growth of just over 2.5% per year for the industrialised world in the period 1993-2005. It sees the differences in growth rates between individual countries narrowing, compared with previous periods. This is attributed to the "closer ties" between the economic blocs, as well as the narrowing gap between rich and poor countries. Industry's contribution to GDP, currently 22%, is unlikely to change during the next 12 years, says the research institute. Employment in industry will be cut back "noticeably," but productivity will show an "above average" increase. Absolute productivity, which takes in a number of specific factors, including the structure of the various branches of industry, infrastructure, level of education and training, was highest in Switzerland in 1993, followed by Japan and Western Germany, and Prognos predicts that this will not change up to 2005.
The report regards perspectives for controlling inflation as "relatively favourable," due especially to new developments on the energy side. It projects a decline in energy prices up to the year 2000 "in real terms," due to the positive ratio between supply and demand; thereafter, prices could rise "moderately." Consumer prices in the industrialised world are expected to rise by around 3.5% annually in the period 1993-2005.
Prognos expects the population of the industrialised countries to increase by 26m up to 2005, to a total of 817m, whereby the US will see a substantial surplus of 15.3m, due to higher birth rates. In Western Europe, the population could grow by around 4m, due to immigration. The aging of the population could pose problems for industry, as well as threatening social security systems. In the triade, the US will be in the most favourable position, say the researchers. Some 35% of the workforce will be aged 60 or older, compared with 41% in Japan and 55% in Europe. Japan's population will age fastest, the projected figures show.
READER SERVICE: Press release, summary of the Prognos report "Industrieländer 1993-1999-2005" (German): PIE-No. 36201.
Prognos predicts average growth of just over 2.5% per year for the industrialised world in the period 1993-2005. It sees the differences in growth rates between individual countries narrowing, compared with previous periods. This is attributed to the "closer ties" between the economic blocs, as well as the narrowing gap between rich and poor countries. Industry's contribution to GDP, currently 22%, is unlikely to change during the next 12 years, says the research institute. Employment in industry will be cut back "noticeably," but productivity will show an "above average" increase. Absolute productivity, which takes in a number of specific factors, including the structure of the various branches of industry, infrastructure, level of education and training, was highest in Switzerland in 1993, followed by Japan and Western Germany, and Prognos predicts that this will not change up to 2005.
The report regards perspectives for controlling inflation as "relatively favourable," due especially to new developments on the energy side. It projects a decline in energy prices up to the year 2000 "in real terms," due to the positive ratio between supply and demand; thereafter, prices could rise "moderately." Consumer prices in the industrialised world are expected to rise by around 3.5% annually in the period 1993-2005.
Prognos expects the population of the industrialised countries to increase by 26m up to 2005, to a total of 817m, whereby the US will see a substantial surplus of 15.3m, due to higher birth rates. In Western Europe, the population could grow by around 4m, due to immigration. The aging of the population could pose problems for industry, as well as threatening social security systems. In the triade, the US will be in the most favourable position, say the researchers. Some 35% of the workforce will be aged 60 or older, compared with 41% in Japan and 55% in Europe. Japan's population will age fastest, the projected figures show.
READER SERVICE: Press release, summary of the Prognos report "Industrieländer 1993-1999-2005" (German): PIE-No. 36201.
15.05.1995 Plasteurope.com [20788]
Published on 15.05.1995