Italy, the only G7 country so far to join China’s new Silk Road initiative, wants to say “ciao” to Beijing, according to media reports. A final decision on the project is expected before December, according to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

A rejection could be a signal for countries of a similar mind that see China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a Trojan horse, an avenue for expanding influence, especially in emerging countries in Asia and Africa. The only thing clear so far is that Chinese President Xi Jinping will not like the latest developments, so it will be interesting to see how China reacts. When Lithuania opened a diplomatic mission in Taiwan in 2021, Beijing initially deleted the country from the customs database and stopped all trade.

With this new conviction, the Italian government is in line with two German opinions: scepticism about Chinese state-owned company Cosco taking a stake in the Hamburg container terminal operator, and the end of the planned sailing partnership between the city of Kiel and the Chinese metropolis Qingdao.

Sailing – there’s a difficult task in southeast China at the moment after the deadly one-two of Typhoons Doksuri and Khanun arrived in quick succession. Damage in the region is widespread, and operations at a number of east coast ports have been affected. This could shift the usual development of freight rates for the Christmas business in the US and Europe.

Prices on Pacific routes to the US are already increasing. Usually there is a small dip a few weeks before the European Christmas trade in September. This interim decline could fail to materialise this year with delivery delays of up to 10 days rumoured from China if both holiday shipping peaks merge. However, views of market observers on short-term development are divided: pessimists assume that the Christmas business will only last until mid-September and then abruptly slow down. Optimists, on the other hand, expect a stronger season until the end of October. However, both camps are aware that new shipping capacity in the future will tend to pull freight rates down again soon.

Thus life remains exciting for logistics experts. And we also have good news from Germany: recent rains are filling rivers and raising water levels, including along the Rhine. If the situation holds, inland navigation companies could avoid a shutdown of Germany’s most important waterway this year. Back in 2018, shipping was halted due to the persistent drought.

Price for a 40-foot container with change from prior week:

China – US West Coast up 5.9% to USD 1,800 (EUR 1,622)

China – US East Coast up 3.6% to USD 2,900

China – Northern Europe unchanged at USD 1,300 

Northern Europe – China unchanged at USD 500

China – Southern Europe unchanged at USD 1,900 

Southern Europe – China unchanged at USD 500 

US East Coast – Northern Europe down 6.7% to USD 700

Northern Europe – US East Coast down 10.0% to USD 1,800