For the month of March 2023, the Hamburg Institute for International Economics (HWWI, Hamburg, Germany; www.hwwi.de) determined an energy commodity price index that was 9.4% lower than the previous month. The sub-index for natural gas fell by 15.4% and was almost 67% below the previous year’s value.

One year after the start of the war in Ukraine, the supply situation has eased further. Many consumer countries have now been able to replace Russian natural gas with supplies from other countries such as Norway or Qatar. At the same time, consumption has been reduced in many places. The HWWI sees a looming threat for the next winter: without Russian imports and stronger Chinese demand at the same time, gas prices could rise again.

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The sub-index for coal also fell by double digits in March, by 17.4%. This was about 50% below the value of the same month last year.

The trend in the price of crude oil, which has been observed for some time, also continued: compared to the previous month, the sub-index for crude oil fell by 4.8% and was thus around 30% below the value of March 2022. The headline HWWI measure is composed of sub-indices for energy commodities, industrial commodities, and food and beverages.

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